A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations

AMS Citation:
Weaver, C. P., and Coauthors, 2009: A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90, 1843-1863, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2568.1.
Date:2009-12-17
Resource Type:article
Title:A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations
Abstract: This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O₃) concentrations to global climate change (ca. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions among climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The ultimate goal is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential effects of global change on air quality, including O₃. The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment. The aim in this first phase was to consider the effects of climate change alone on air quality, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases of a few to several parts per billion (ppb) in summertime mean maximum daily 8-h average O₃ concentrations over substantial regions of the country. The different modeling experiments in general do not, however, simulate the same regional patterns of change. These differences seem to result largely from variations in the simulated patterns of changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O₃ response to climate change.
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7qn67sp
Publisher's Version: 10.1175/2009BAMS2568.1
Author(s):
  • C. Weaver
  • X-Z Liang
  • J. Zhu
  • P. Adams
  • P. Amar
  • J. Avise
  • M. Caughey
  • J. Chen
  • R. Cohen
  • E. Cooter
  • J. Dawson
  • R. Gilliam
  • A. Gilliland
  • A. Goldstein
  • A. Grambsch
  • D. Grano
  • Alex Guenther - NCAR/UCAR
  • W. Gustafson
  • R. Harley
  • S. He
  • B. Hemming
  • C. Hogrefe
  • H-C Huang
  • S. Hunt
  • D. Jacob
  • P. Kinney
  • K. Kunkel
  • Jean-Francois Lamarque - NCAR/UCAR
  • B. Lamb
  • N. Larkin
  • L. Leung
  • K.-J Liao
  • J.-T Lin
  • B. Lynn
  • K. Manomai phi boon
  • C. Mass
  • D. McKenzie
  • L. Mickley
  • S. O’Neill
  • C. Nolte
  • S. Pandis
  • P. Racherla
  • C. Rosenzweig
  • A. Russell
  • E. Salathé
  • A. Steiner
  • E. Tagaris
  • Z. Tao
  • S. Tonse
  • Christine Wiedinmyer - NCAR/UCAR
  • A. Williams
  • D. Winner
  • J.-H Woo
  • S. Wu
  • D. Wuebbles
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