A weather and climate enterprise strategic implementation plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty information

AMS Citation:
Hirschberg, P. A., and Coauthors, 2011: A weather and climate enterprise strategic implementation plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty information. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 1651-1666, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00073.1.
Date:2011-12-01
Resource Type:article
Title:A weather and climate enterprise strategic implementation plan for generating and communicating forecast uncertainty information
Abstract: The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (the Plan) is summarized. The Plan is based on and intended to provide a foundation for implementing recent recommendations regarding forecast uncertainty by the National Research Council (NRC), AMS, and World Meteorological Organization. It defines a vision, strategic goals, roles and respon- sibilities, and an implementation road map to guide the weather and climate enterprise (the Enterprise) toward routinely providing the nation with comprehensive, skillful, reliable, and useful information about the uncertainty of weather, water, and climate (hydrometeorological) forecasts. Examples are provided describing how hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty information can improve decisions and outcomes in various socioeconomic areas. The implementation road map defines objectives and tasks that the four sectors comprising the Enterprise (i.e., government, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations) should work on in partnership to meet four key, interrelated strategic goals: 1) understand social and physical science aspects of forecast uncertainty; 2) communicate forecast uncertainty information effectively and collaborate with users to assist them in their decision making; 3) generate forecast uncertainty data, products, services, and information; and 4) enable research, development, and operations with necessary information technology and other infrastructure. The Plan endorses the NRC recommendation that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and, in particular, the National Weather Service, should take the lead in motivating and organizing Enterprise resources and expertise in order to reach the Plan's vision and goals and shift the nation successfully toward a greater understanding and use of forecast uncertainty in decision making.
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2011 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d77m08ps
Publisher's Version: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00073.1
Author(s):
  • Paul Hirschberg
  • Elliot Abrams
  • Andrea Bleistein
  • William Bua - NCAR/UCAR
  • Luca Delle Monache - NCAR/UCAR
  • Thomas Dulong
  • John Gaynor
  • Bob Glahn
  • Thomas Hamill
  • James Hansen
  • Douglas Hilderbrand
  • Ross Hoffman
  • Betty Morrow
  • Brenda Philips
  • John Sokich
  • Neil Stuart
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