Wind resource estimates with an analog ensemble approach

AMS Citation:
Vanvyve, E., L. Delle Monache, A. J. Monaghan, and J. Pinto, 2015: Wind resource estimates with an analog ensemble approach. Renewable Energy, 74, 761-773, doi:10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.060.
Date:2015-02-01
Resource Type:article
Title:Wind resource estimates with an analog ensemble approach
Abstract: The wind resource and energy assessment is key to a wind farm development project. It allows for establishing the feasibility and economic viability of the project over the typical 10- to 30-year lifetime of a wind farm. Recent studies show that the accuracy of assessments has substantial room for improvement. Estimating and reducing uncertainty is important to secure financing and ensure the confidence of investors. A new method is proposed and demonstrated for the long-term estimation of the wind speeds at a target site, a key step in assessments. The method is based on ensembles made of analogs between a short-term observational record from the target site and a long-term historical record from a nearby site or an atmospheric model. It provides a high-quality long-term wind resource estimate, characterized by an accurate wind speed time series and frequency distribution. It also provides a reliable estimate of the uncertainty based on the actual physical processes determining the current atmospheric flow rather than the climatological wind distribution.
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2015 Elsevier B.V.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7s75hhh
Publisher's Version: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.08.060
Author(s):
  • Emilie Vanvyve - NCAR/UCAR
  • Luca Delle Monache - NCAR/UCAR
  • Andrew Monaghan - NCAR/UCAR
  • James Pinto - NCAR/UCAR
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