Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

AMS Citation:
Pendergrass, A., F. Lehner, B. M. Sanderson, and Y. Xu, 2015: Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario? Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 8767-8774, doi:10.1002/2015GL065854.
Date:2015-10-28
Resource Type:article
Title:Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?
Abstract: The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree global-mean surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings and across emissions scenarios with differing composition of change in forcing. We investigate whether or not the rate of change of extreme precipitation also varies across the four emissions scenarios that force the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 multimodel ensemble. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily precipitation per degree global warming in the multimodel ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extratropical land. These results indicate that in contrast to mean precipitation, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario in most models.
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2015 American Geophysical Union.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d79s1shg
Publisher's Version: 10.1002/2015GL065854
Author(s):
  • Angeline Pendergrass - NCAR/UCAR
  • Flavio Lehner - NCAR/UCAR
  • Benjamin Sanderson - NCAR/UCAR
  • Yangyang Xu - NCAR/UCAR
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