Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis

AMS Citation:
Furrer, R., R. Knutti, S. R. Sain, D. Nychka, and G. A. Meehl, 2007: Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L06711, doi:10.1029/2006GL027754.
Date:2007-03-31
Resource Type:article
Title:Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis
Abstract: We present probabilistic projections for spatial patterns of future temperature change using a multivariate Bayesian analysis. The methodology is applied to the output from 21 global coupled climate models used for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The statistical technique is based on the assumption that spatial patterns of climate change can be separated into a large scale signal related to the true forced climate change and a small scale signal due to model bias and variability. The different scales are represented via dimension reduction techniques in a hierarchical Bayesian model. Posterior probabilities are obtained with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We show that with 66% (90%) probability 79% (48%) of the land areas warm by more than 2°C by the end of the century for the SRES A1B scenario.
Subject(s):Mathematical geophysics, Spatial analysis, Climate change and variability
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2007 American Geophysical Union.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7fb536f
Publisher's Version: 10.1029/2006GL027754
Author(s):
  • Reinhard Furrer
  • Reto Knutti - NCAR/UCAR
  • Stephan Sain - NCAR/UCAR
  • Doug Nychka - NCAR/UCAR
  • Gerald Meehl - NCAR/UCAR
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