Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model

AMS Citation:
Davis, C. A., and Coauthors, 2008: Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 1990-2005, doi:10.1175/2007MWR2085.1.
Date:2008-06-01
Resource Type:article
Title:Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model
Abstract: Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast.
Subject(s):Hurricanes, Forecasting techniques, Model evaluation/performance
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2008 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7445mnm
Publisher's Version: 10.1175/2007MWR2085.1
Author(s):
  • Christopher Davis - NCAR/UCAR
  • Wei Wang - NCAR/UCAR
  • Shuyi Chen - NCAR/UCAR
  • Yongsheng Chen - NCAR/UCAR
  • Kristen Corbosiero - NCAR/UCAR
  • Mark DeMaria
  • Jimy Dudhia - NCAR/UCAR
  • Gregory Holland - NCAR/UCAR
  • Joseph Klemp - NCAR/UCAR
  • John Michalakes - NCAR/UCAR
  • Heather Reeves - NCAR/UCAR
  • Richard Rotunno - NCAR/UCAR
  • Chris Snyder - NCAR/UCAR
  • Qingnong Xiao - NCAR/UCAR
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