Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of a mesoscale convective vortex event of 10-13 June 2003

AMS Citation:
Hawbliztel, D. P., F. Zhang, Z. Meng, and C. A. Davis, 2007: Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of a mesoscale convective vortex event of 10-13 June 2003. Monthly Weather Review, 135, 1544-1563, doi:10.1175/MWR3346.1.
Date:2007-04-01
Resource Type:article
Title:Probabilistic evaluation of the dynamics and predictability of a mesoscale convective vortex event of 10-13 June 2003
Abstract: This study examines the dynamics and predictability of the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) of 10-13 June 2003 through ensemble forecasting. The MCV of interest developed from a preexisting upper-level disturbance over the southwest United States on 10 June and matured as it traveled northeastward. This event is of particular interest given the anomalously strong and long-lived nature of the circulation. An ensemble of 20 forecasts using a 2-way nested mesoscale model with horizontal grid increments of 30 and 10 km are employed to probabilistically evaluate the dynamics and predictability of the MCV. Ensemble mean and spread as well as correlations between different forecast variables at different forecast times are examined. It is shown that small-amplitude large-scale balanced initial perturbations may result in very large ensemble spread, with individual solutions ranging from a very strong MCV to no MCV at all. Despite similar synoptic-scale conditions, the ensemble MCV forecasts vary greatly depending on intensity and coverage of simulated convection, illustrating the critical role of convection in the development and evolution of this MCV. Correlation analyses reveal the importance of a preexisting disturbance to the eventual development of the MCV. It is also found that convection near the center of the MCV the day after its formation may be an important factor in determining the eventual growth of a surface vortex and that a stronger midlevel vortex is more conducive to convection, especially on the downshear side, consistent with the findings of previous MCV studies.
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2007 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7348kk4
Publisher's Version: 10.1175/MWR3346.1
Author(s):
  • Daniel Hawbliztel
  • Fuqing Zhang
  • Zhiyong Meng
  • Christopher Davis - NCAR/UCAR
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