An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

AMS Citation:
Morss, R., and E. Wahl, 2007: An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood. Environmental Hazards, 7, 342-352, doi:10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.09.004.
Date:2007-01-01
Resource Type:article
Title:An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood
Abstract: Weather, climate, and flood predictions are incorporated into human decisions in a wide variety of situations, including decisions related to hazardous hydrometeorological events. This article examines ethical aspects of such predictions and decisions, focusing on the case of the 1997 Red River flood in Grand Forks, North Dakota and East Grand Forks, Minnesota (US). The analysis employs a formal ethical framework and analytical method derived from medical and business ethics. The results of the analysis highlight issues related to forecast generation, communication of forecast meaning and uncertainty, responsibility for the use of forecasts in decision making, and trade-offs between the desire for forecast certainty and the risk of missed events. Implications of the analysis for the broader arenas of weather, climate, and flood prediction and disaster management are also discussed.
Subject(s):Red River of the North, Prediction
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2007 Earthscan.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7cv4j1r
Publisher's Version: 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.09.004
Author(s):
  • Rebecca Morss - NCAR/UCAR
  • Eugene Wahl
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