Special MMM/CGD Joint Seminar - Tropical Cyclones and Equatorial Waves in Global Storm-Resolving Models

Special MMM/CGD Joint Seminar - Thursday, October 31, 2019 - 3:30pm

Speaker: Falko Judt

Affiliation:  Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, NCAR

Since the inception of numerical weather and climate prediction, our models have struggled to accurately simulate the tropical atmosphere. In this talk, I will demonstrate that global storm resolving models (global models with 5 km grid spacing or less) eliminate some issues that previous models had, mostly by foregoing the need to parametrize deep convection. In particular, I will show how global storm-resolving models improve the representation of tropical cyclones and equatorial waves. This presentation will also explain why, in theory, the weather has longer predictability in the tropics than in the middle latitudes. Notwithstanding their overall positive impact, global storm-resolving models still suffer from substantial biases. A model intercomparison reveals that all participating models over-predict tropical cyclone intensity, whereas each model struggles in its own way to predict the number of cyclones in a given ocean basin.

Refreshments: 3:15 PM

Building:

Room Number: 
FL2-1022 - Large Auditorium

Type of event:

Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Announcement Timing: 
Wednesday, October 23, 2019 to Thursday, October 31, 2019
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, October 31, 2019 - 3:30pm to 4:30pm

Posted by Nancy Kerner at ext. 8946, nskerner@ucar.edu

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