Staff Notes Daily Announcements

Title: Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Speaker: Adam Scaife, UK Met Office

Date: Tuesday, 19 November 2019

Time: 11 am - 12 pm

*Refreshments at 10:45*

Location: Mesa Lab, Main Seminar Room, ML - 132

Abstract:This seminar reviews the latest evidence for long range predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hence European and North American winters.  Retrospective hindcasts and recent real time predictions suggest that the winter NAO is predictable at seasonal and longer lead times.  In this seminar I show that much of this predictability originates in the tropics and the stratosphere.  High predictability of tropical rainfall is first demonstrated for current prediction systems and this is shown to lead to clear stationary Rossby waves that propagate into the extratropics, into the Atlantic sector and project onto the NAO.  We estimate that this mechanism can explain around half of the forecast variance in the NAO.  Secondly, we show that initial atmospheric conditions are also important for seasonal prediction of the NAO.  Initial anomalies in stratospheric winds at the start of winter propagate downwards into the troposphere on subseasonal timescales where they lead to anomalies in the winter mean sea level pressure.  Together, these mechanisms potentially explain the majority of forecast variance in the winter NAO.  I also show some of the remaining errors in seasonal forecasts of tropical rainfall and discuss the unresolved signal-to-noise paradox, whereby ensemble forecasts are better at predicting the real observed NAO than the they are at predicting their own simulations of the NAO.

For more information contact Tracy Baker, tbaker@ucar.edu, 303-497-1366

Posted by Tracy Baker at ext. 1366, tbaker@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Tuesday, November 19, 2019

A new Delphi Q&A has been posted about: switching external vendors.

To learn more about Delphi, visit the Delphi website.

Posted by Sharon Clark at ext. 2948, sclark@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Sunday, November 24, 2019

Remember to make your 2020 Open Enrollment elections by Monday, December 2, at 5:00 MST.

Your UCAR Benefit Administrators are available to help you with your Workday Open Enrollment.  We still have three open labs if you need one-on-one assistance with your Open Enrollment elections.

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Please attend one of the Open Labs below for one-on-one assistance.

(Bring your laptop if possible)

Tuesday, November 19, CG2, Room 3024 CTTC, 1:00 - 3:00 p.m. MST

Friday, November 22, CG2, Room 3024 CTTC, 10:00 a.m. - noon MST

Monday, November 25, ML, Room 245 Chapman Room, 10:00 a.m. - 1:00 p.m. MST

Posted by Dana Rosebrook at ext. 8726, danar@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Friday, November 22, 2019

Please plan to join in a very special breakfast buffet!

Tuesday, November 26 

9:00 a.m.- 11:00 a.m.

Center Green Auditorium

 

UCAR/NCAR/UCP Leadership will be making pancakes and waffles to order, as well as serving a full array of breakfast favorites.

Families are welcome to join in the fun.

Please RSVP to the Greenvelope invitation in your email inbox or by emailing Jill Reisdorf at reisdorf@ucar.edu

 

 

 

 

Posted by Jill Reisdorf at ext. 1654, reisdorf@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019

Wednesday, February 26, 2020 at 9 am–Friday, February 28, 2020 at 12:30 pm

Mesa Lab Auditorium

This meeting celebrates Michael Knoelker’s original work on solar and stellar magnetism and seismology, as well as his major contributions to the High Altitude Observatory during his 15-year directorship, and his recent appointment to Senior Scientist Emeritus. Michael started his career with ground breaking work on magnetic flux concentrations in the solar photosphere. Michael Knoelker is known for his mentoring of young scientists, his collaborations on high-altitude, long-duration, balloon programs and his role as a Co-PI on the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST).

This symposium will focus on recent developments and future directions in solar physics, the solar-stellar connection, exoplanets and modeling of exoplanet atmospheres.

Registration and abstract submission are open. (https://www2.hao.ucar.edu/MK-Symposium2020) Early registration ends January 31, 2020.

SOC

Guy Brasseur—NCAR/Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Tim Brown—Las Cumbres Observatory

Valentin M. Pillet—National Solar Observatory

Matthias Rempel—High Altitude Observatory

Invited Speakers

Axel Brandenburg—Carnegie Mellon University, Nordita

Roberto Casini—High Altitude Observatory

Paul Charbonneau—University of Montreal

Bruce Lites—High Altitude Observatory

Yuhong Fan—High Altitude Observatory

Sarah Gibson—High Altitude Observatory

Philip Goode—Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology

James Kasting—Penn State University

Travis Metcalf—Space Science Institute

Matthias Rempel—High Altitude Observatory

Thomas Rimmele—National Solar Observatory

Wolfgang Schmidt—Leibniz-Institute for Solar Physics

Manfred Schüssler—Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research

Sami Solanki—Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research

Oskar von der Lühe—Leibniz-Institute for Solar Physics

Eric Wolf—CU Boulder

Posted by Wendy Hawkins at ext. 1552, whawkins@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Saturday, December 7, 2019

Every month, a TIAA representative is on-site to meet with employees on an individual basis to answer questions about the TIAA retirement plan and provide guidance with retirement portfolios.

December’s sessions with Rhett Belcher: 12/5/2019 -- CG1 Board Room 3150 12/17/2019 – FL2-1002

Register Today: Click here to schedule an appointment with TIAA in December or call their Scheduling and Service Group phone reservation center at: 1-800-732-8353.

These sessions are in high demand, so if you have to miss your appointment, be sure to contact TIAA as soon as possible so they can fill your time slot.

Posted by Laurie Carr at ext. 8702, lcarr@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Greetings,

We had a great turn out for our webinar: Community Training, Resources & Support for WRF-Hydro® & its configuration as the National Water Model hosted on 12 November by NCAR & CUAHSI! The video is now available via YouTube. bit.ly/WHresourcesvideo

Happy viewing!

Please feel free to contact mollymca@ucar.edu if you have questions regarding WRF-Hydro or the webinar.

Posted by Molly McAllister at ext. 8253, mollymca@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Tuesday, December 17, 2019

The “I Have A Dream” Foundation of Boulder County (IHDF) is seeking compassionate, dedicated and flexible volunteers to serve as program tutors and supporters at one of our Dreamer Scholar classes, the Diagonal Cubs class. We would pick one day of the week (i.e. Mondays) for the NCAR|UCAR partnership to be established at site and the NCAR|UCAR volunteers would sign up for one or two shifts (depending on how many people are interested) on that day throughout the semester.

Join us for an information/training session at FL2-1001 at 1:00 on December 2, 2019. Questions? contact John Ristvey at jristvey@ucar.edu or x2591.

Posted by Shaun Bush at ext. 2580, sbush@ucar.edu

Monday, November 18, 2019 to Monday, December 2, 2019

The High Performance Storage System (HPSS) tape archive will become read-only for users on January 20, 2020, with exceptions only for curated collections such as the Research Data Archive. This follows the announcement in October that HPSS will reach its end of life and be decommissioned in 2021.

While writing HPSS files will not be possible as of January 20, users will still be able to perform most common meta-data operations on their HPSS holdings, including deleting, renaming, and moving files. Those who have not already done so should begin deleting files that are no longer needed and moving other data to alternative storage systems as soon as possible.

Recently published documentation – Migrating files from HPSS – describes recommended processes for identifying and organizing HPSS holdings, copying files that need to be preserved to another storage resource, and deleting files that are no longer needed. Additional CISL Daily Bulletin announcements will follow as new tools, training, and expanded documentation become available to support the data migration. In the meantime, please contact CISL for advice on individual workflows, accessing data movers, and storage options.

Posted by B.J. Smith at ext. 4971273, bjsmith@ucar.edu

Friday, November 15, 2019 to Friday, November 29, 2019

The CISL User Services Section will present an in-person and online tutorial at 9 a.m. MST on Wednesday, December 4, for users who have data holdings on tape in the High Performance Storage System (HPSS). The tape archive will become read-only on January 20, 2020, and it will reach end of life and be decommissioned in 2021. Users are advised to begin evacuating their holdings from HPSS immediately.

A 30-minute presentation by Brian Vanderwende of the CISL Consulting Services Group will provide attendees with guidance and best practices for moving their files from HPSS. The presentation will be followed by additional time for answering questions and providing one-on-one guidance.

Topics to be covered include: Obtaining information about HPSS data holdings; Moving files to external storage platforms using Globus and Linux utilities; Moving files to Campaign Storage via the data-access nodes.

Register to attend in person at NCAR’s Foothills Lab in Boulder (FL2-1001) or attend online by selecting one of these links:

Posted by B.J. Smith at ext. 4971273, bjsmith@ucar.edu

Friday, November 15, 2019 to Wednesday, December 4, 2019

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