HAO Colloquium - Robertus von Fay-Siebenburgen, Univ. Sheffield

On forecasting solar eruptive events - Leap forward in predicting Space WeatherWith the purpose to introduce one of the most accurate and reliable Space Weather forecasting tool, we present new insights into the pre-flare and Coronal Mass Ejection behavior and the evolution of the Active Regions (ARs) by analysing the SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data (SDD) and the SDO/HMI - Debrecen Data (HMIDD) sunspot catalogues. After a brierf general introduction to the toppic for setting the scene, we embark on our method developed recently that employs the so-called weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WG_M). WG_M is defined between opposite polarity spot-groups that are present in the vicinity of the polarity inversion line(s) of ARs. This parameter provides important diagnostic information (i) about the accurate prediction of flare onset time, (ii) on the flare intensity and (iii) towards CME risk assessment from C- to the X-class flares. We will also discuss additional two auxiliary parameters that guide us about which AR should be given attention for pre-flare and CME monitoring and further analysis. Finally, we discuss how local (sub)surface dynamics may be linked to the global evolution of the solar cycle and how this link may be exploited for impriving space weather forecasting. 


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Thursday, May 31, 2018 - 11:00pm to Friday, June 1, 2018 - 12:00am

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