Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Modern Myth in TC Prediction?

Shuyi S. ChenProfessor of Meteorology and Physical OceanographyRosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of Miami

The need for improving tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts has been a driving force for much of the recent efforts in both TC research and operational community.  However, how to measure predictive skill for TC predictions is still an open question that causes confusion at times.  This study explores the predictability of TC intensity in numerical models.  A particular focus of this talk will be on how scale-dependent error growth leading to forecast uncertainty and limiting forecast skill.

Thursday, 20 June 2013, 3:30 PMRefreshments 3:15 PMNCAR-Foothills Laboratory3450 Mitchell LaneBldg 2 Small Seminar Room 1001


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