Staff Notes Daily Calendar Events

We are now accepting applications for: THE COMMUNITY WRF-HYDRO MODELING SYSTEM - ABRIDGED VIRTUAL TRAINING WORKSHOP CO-SPONSORED WITH CUAHSI

When: 4,5,6 November 2020 9am-1pm MST |

Where: Virtual via Zoom

About: The WRF-Hydro Modeling System produces forecasts and analyses for all major terrestrial water-cycle components: Precipitation, Streamflow, Soil moisture, Snowpack, Flooding, Groundwater. These forecasts and analyses can be applied to a range of pursuits, such as flash-flood prediction, regional hydroclimate impact assessments, seasonal forecasting of water resources, and land-atmosphere coupling studies that supply forecasters, water managers, and government officials with data-driven science to better inform their decisions.

In this abridged virtual training workshop we will provide an indepth look into the capabilities within WRF-Hydro and provide participants with the building blocks to start their research with it.  Example studies of  events and model simulations will be presented as a demonstration of WRF-Hydro’s capabilities. Participants will gain experience with hands-on model configuration and execution and run experimental model simulations and comparisons with a prepared example test case. Participants will also be provided with information on additional resources that can be used to further their familiarity with WRF-Hydro and build on the basics learned during this tutorial.

Intended Topics to be covered in this workshop:

• Conceptualization and structure of the WRF-Hydro system
• Description of physics components and options within WRF-Hydro
• Model porting and compilation, and an overview of parallel computing with WRF-Hydro
• Hands-on model input data preparation and creation of an example test case
• Hands-on model configuration and execution
• Hands-on experimental model simulations and comparisons with a prepared example test case
• Hands-on example WRF|WRF-Hydro model coupled simulation
• Overview of model calibration
• Open discussion on class participant interests and applications & interactive activities

How to Apply:

See the event Website for details. Fill out this application form. 20 spots are available. Applications will be accepted beginning the week of September 15 until 5pm ET, Wednesday, 30 September 2020.

Attendee Knowledge Requirements:

Applications will be accepted from current and incoming graduate students, post-docs, academics, and professionals working in hydrology and/or the atmospheric sciences.

Prior hydrologic and/or atmospheric modeling experience is required.

Must be comfortable working in a UNIX environment, running UNIX command-line operations and text editors.

Familiarity with the R and/or Python programming language is recommended.

Attendee Computing Requirements:

Reliable internet connection and speed

A computer with at least 2 CPUs, however much of the computing will be done on the cloud. Web browser - we recommend Google Chrome

Instructors:

• David Gochis
• Aubrey Dugger
• Kevin Sampson
• Laura Read
• Katelyn FitzGerald
• Arezoo RafieeNasab
• Matt Casali
• Yongxin Zhang

Title: Revisiting trends in southern hemisphere westerlies and their impact on the oceans

Speaker: Darryn Waugh, Johns Hopkins University

Date: Tuesday, 6 October 2020

Time: 11 am - 12 pm

For Zoom viewing access contact Tracy Baker, tbaker@ucar.edu

Abstract: It is widely understood that there has been a trend towards a more positive phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), with an associated strengthening and poleward shift of southern near-surface westerlies, over the last few decades.  However, as will be shown in this talk, there has been a recent pause in some of these trends together with substantial longitudinal variations in the wind trends.  Specifically there has been a large strengthening and a statistically insignificant equatorward shift of peak annual-mean near-surface winds over the Pacific, in contrast to a weaker strengthening and significant poleward shift over the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sectors.   Analysis of ensembles of climate model simulations indicate that while the summer trends and pause are a forced response, the differential movement of the peak westerlies is a manifestation of internal variability.   Implications of these asymmetries in wind trends for the ocean response will also be discussed, with a focus on the inter-basin differences in the ventilation of mode and intermediate waters, and possible impact on ocean uptake of carbon and heat.

For more information contact Tracy Baker, tbaker@ucar.edu, 303-497-1366

Title: Slow Modes of Global Temperature Variability in Regions of Weak Radiative Feedbacks

Speaker: Robert Jnglin Wills, University of Washington

Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2020

Time: 11 am -12 pm

For Zoom viewing information contact Tracy Baker, tbaker@ucar.edu

Abstract:  Acting as both signal and noise, internal climate variability may confound estimates of the climate response to forcing but offers an opportunity to examine the dynamics controlling Earth's energy budget. We analyze the impact of low-frequency internal variability on global-mean surface temperature (GMST) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation in CMIP6 pre-industrial control simulations. Slow modes of variability are identified using low-frequency component analysis. The slow modes of variability with the largest impact on decadal GMST anomalies are focused in high-latitude ocean regions, where they have a minimal impact on global TOA radiation. When these regions warm, positive shortwave cloud and sea ice-albedo feedbacks largely cancel the negative feedback of outgoing longwave radiation, resulting in a weak net radiative feedback. The weak net radiative feedback means that less energy is required to sustain these long-lived temperature anomalies. These results suggest that on decadal and longer timescales, different processes control internal variability in GMST than control internal variability in global TOA radiation. We also discuss the contribution of low-frequency internal variability to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity from decadal-mean anomalies in GMST and TOA radiative imbalance.

For more information contact Tracy Baker, tbaker@ucar.edu, 303-497-1366

Dear friends and colleagues,

Event Services would like to extend its sincere appreciation to those who joined the virtual Wine and BBQ event last month (and watched the recording). We very much enjoyed welcoming you virtually into our backyards and homes, and want to keep the fun going!

To that end, Event Services is pleased to announce an exciting new initiative: “Event Services, Cooking and Beyond.” Every other week, Event Services staff will host virtual, informative, interactive sessions on topics such as grocery shopping, cooking for kids, kitchen organization, and baking, just to name a few! Be sure to join the first session to take a deep dive into menu planning with Sylvia Ng, Chef Matt Pinter, and Chef Nancy Bottlemy on Thursday, September 24, 12 p.m. MDT.

As most of us continue to work from home, we know many are spending more time in their kitchens cooking for themselves and their families. ES wants to encourage you to keep trying new recipes, ingredients, and techniques. Don’t forget about our online cookbook, where we continue to add recipes daily.

In our continued effort to support you in all of your menu planning and cooking adventures, our talented staff also wishes to offer their experience, knowledge, and advice to you on an as-needed basis. We each have specific areas of interest and expertise that we would love to share with you. Please feel free to view our profiles and reach out to any of us with questions.

Deep Learning in Solar Physics

During the last decade, deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool to extract relevant information from observations. Using very deep and complex neural networks one can improve the performance of specific tasks, sometimes much better than the conventional algorithms. In this talk, I will present some examples of how we have successfully applied deep learning to several problems in Solar Physics and highlight some results related to fast image reconstruction, 3D inversion of the Stokes parameters, and noise reduction in observational data.

https://meet.google.com/jhs-dxaq-jym

X-ray Imaging of Energetic Particle Precipitation from the Radiation Belts: The AEPEX CubeSat Mission

Radiation belt electron fluxes can be enhanced by two order of magnitude or more during geomagnetic storms; subsequently, these fluxes decay back to nominal levels over the course of days to weeks. However, the mechanisms by which this enhancement and decay occurs are not well understood. Precipitation into the upper atmosphere is one of the primary loss mechanisms for radiation belt electrons, particularly during the decay phase. When these particles impact the upper atmosphere, they create new ionization in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, which leads to a chemical response that increases NOx and HOx and destroys ozone. Quantifying both the loss from the radiation belts and the impact on the atmosphere requires an accurate estimate of the flux, energy spectrum, and spatial and temporal scales of this electron precipitation. However, such assessments are particularly difficult due to limitations and uncertainties of most measurement techniques.

The Atmospheric Effects of Precipitation through Energetic X-rays (AEPEX) CubeSat mission is designed to quantify these parameters of radiation belt precipitation by measuring the bremsstrahlung X-rays created during the precipitation process. Hard X-rays from electron precipitation have previously been measured from high-altitude balloons and satellites, but have never been imaged from space, providing the spatial resolution needed to assess large-scale and global impacts. AEPEX will image the X-ray fluxes produced by the atmosphere, providing measurements of spatial scales, along with the X-ray flux and spectrum. A solid-state energetic particle detector will measure the precipitating electron energy spectrum, which is used to constrain the inversion of X-ray fluxes to electron fluxes. Simulation work has been conducted to show that the combined particle and X-ray measurements can be used to accurately measure the precipitating electron flux and the atmospheric ionization response. In this talk, I will provide an overview of the science goals of the AEPEX mission, a description of the inversion process by which we estimate the electron precipitation flux, and a detailed description of the instrument, spacecraft, and mission design. AEPEX is currently in the design phase, and the mission is expected to launch in mid-2022.

https://meet.google.com/fiy-pscj-uef

We invite you to register for the upcoming virtual workshop: Current Topics in Tropical Island Hydrology: Water Hazard & Resource Prediction to be held Wednesday, 30 September 2020 via Zoom from 1pm-4:30pm MDT/9am-12:30pm HST. Registration closes 5pm MDT Friday 25 September 2020.  See below for details.  Sponsors: NCAR & University of Hawaii

Workshop Goals: This workshop will present current reserach topics in tropical hydrology: water hazard and water resource prediction. This webinar will also provide an introduction to the capabilities within the WRF-Hydro Modeling System specific and unique to the hydrometeorological forecasting needs of tropical island nations by demonstrating model simulations over a representative tropical Pacific island (Oahu, Hawaii) utilizing cloud-based technology. 

Specifically during the workshop we will: 

• Hear from seasoned experts on current research topics ranging from tropical rainfall, tropical hydrologic forecasting, island processes
• Provide a technical overview of the WRF-Hydro Modeling System & discuss the National Water Model Hawaii Implementation
• Provide a demonstration of a severe flash flood event test case over Oahu
• Openly discuss the transferability of the Hawaii WRF-Hydro test case to other topical island regimes

The primary desired outcome of this workshop is the emergence of a community of practitioners who can share experiences and tools in reducing vulnerability to tropical island flooding events. 

Speakers: 

Kevin Kodama- Senior Service Hydrologist at NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Hawaii- The NWM-Hawaii: Hydro Ops Evolved

David Gochis- Scientist at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)- A technical overview of the WRF-Hydro modeling system and its application in hydrometeorological forecasting

Yu-Fen Huang- Graduate Student at University of Hawaii- The changes and trends in the peak flow across Hawaiian Islands

Thomas Giambaluca- Director of the Water Resources Research Center, University of Hawaii- Developing a near-real-time rainfall mapping system for Hawai'i

Lulin Xue- Project Scientist at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)- How will rainfall change over Hawai'i in the future? High resolution regional climate simulation of the Hawaiian Islands

Katelyn FitzGerald- Associate Scientist at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)- Introduction to the Community WRF-Hydro Modeling System- Demonstration of a model simulation for a flood event over Oahu

Tuesday, 10/20/20

Consultant: Rhett Belcher