Melissa Bukovsky

Project Scientist II, RISC

Computational and Information Systems Laboratory

Information

Bio

Melissa Bukovsky is a project scientist at NCAR. Her research focuses on climate change in North America and includes regional climate modeling and analysis. Melissa is interested in determining the credibility of climate model simulations and future projections of climate change via the in-depth examination of important weather and climate features in a given region. Some of her current area of work include the North American monsoon region and U.S. Great Plains. Melissa is also currently involved in North American CORDEX (na-cordex.org), and has produced WRF and RegCM simulations for that effort.

As part of her work, Melissa often interacts with researchers from other disciplines working to examine the potential impact of weather and climate changes on different aspects of society. She guides researchers outside of the atmospheric sciences in the best-practices for climate data use and, also, in the understanding of different types of uncertainty inherent in projecting future climate.

Giving talks on climate change, participating in outreach activities, and occasionally hosting the NCAR public tour is also a regular part of her professional life.

Outside of work Melissa is a ceramic artist, salsa dancer, and enjoys spending time working on her house and garden.

Publications

Journal Publications

Bukovsky M.S., T.S. Rendfrey, L.O. Mearns, 2018: The sensitivity of regional climate models to equilibrium climate sensitivity. Climatic Change, in review.

Wang, Z., T.Q. Zhang, C.S. Tan, L. Xue, M.S. Bukovsky, and Z.M. Qi, 2018: Modeling impacts of climate change on crop yield and phosphorus loss in a subsurface drained field of Lake Erie region. Global Env. Change, in review.

Bukovsky, M.S., J. Thompson, and L.O. Mearns, 2018: The effect of weighting on the NARCCAP ensemble mean. Does it make a difference? Can it make a difference? Clim. Res., in review.

Lloyd, E.A., L.O. Mearns, M.S. Bukovsky, 2018: An analysis of the disagreement about added value by regional climate models. Synthese, in review.

Carrillo, C.M., C.L. Castro, G. Garfin, H.-I. Chang, M.S. Bukovsky, and L.O. Mearns, 2018: Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models. Int. J. Climatology, 38, 4189-4210. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5561

Bukovsky, M.S., R.R. McCrary, A. Seth, L.O. Mearns, 2017: A mechanistically credible, poleward shift in warm-season precipitation projected for the U.S. Southern Great Plains? J. Climate, 30, 8275-8298.

L.O., Mearns, M.S. Bukovsky, and V. Schweizer, 2016: Potential Value of Expert Elicitation for Determining Differential Credibility of Regional Climate Change Simulations: An Exercise with the NARCCAP co-PIs for the Southwest Monsoon Region of North America. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00019.1

Bukovsky, M.S., C.M. Carrillo, D.J. Gochis, D.M. Hammerling, R.R. McCrary, and L.O. Mearns, 2015: Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American Monsoon: Future climate simulations. J. Climate, 28, 6707-6728, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00695.1

Wang, Z., Z. Qi, L. Xue, M.S. Bukovsky, M.J. Helmers, 2015: Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field. Climatic Change, 129, 323-335.

Weller, G.B., D. Cooley, S.R. Sain, M.S. Bukovsky, 2013: Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes. J. Geophys. Res., 118, 10475-10489.

Bukovsky, M.S., D.J. Gochis, and L.O. Mearns, 2013: Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American Monsoon: Current climate simulations. J. Climate, 26, 8802-8826, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00538.1.

Mearns, L.O., S. Sain, L.R. Leung, M.S. Bukovsky, S. McGinnis, S. Biner, D. Caya, R.W. Arritt, W. Gutowski, E. Takle, M. Snyder, R.G. Jones, A.M.B. Nunes, S. Tucker, D. Herzmann, L. McDaniel, L. Sloan, 2013: Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Clim. Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0831-3.

Bukovsky, M.S., 2012: Temperature trends in the NARCCAP regional climate models. J. Climate, 25, 3985-3991.

Mearns, L.O., R. Arritt, S. Biner, M.S. Bukovsky, D. Caya, D. Flory, W. Gutowski, R. Jones, W. Moufouma-Okia, R. Laprise, R. Leung, Y. Qian, S. McGinnis, L. McDaniel, D. Middleton, S. Sain, A. Nunes, J. Roads, L. Sloan, M. Snyder, G. Takle, 2011: North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Phase 1 Results, Bull. Amer. Metr. Soc., 93, 1337-1362.

Fiedler, B.H., and M.S. Bukovsky, 2011: The effect of a giant wind farm on precipitation in a regional climate model. Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 045101. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/045101.

Bukovsky, M.S., and D.J. Karoly, 2011: A regional modeling study of climate change impacts on warm-season precipitation in the central U.S. J. Climate, 24, 1985-2002.

Bukovsky, M.S., and D.J. Karoly, 2009: The sensitivity of WRF precipitation in nested regional climate simulations. J. Applied Metr. Clim., 48, 2152-2159.

Bukovsky, M.S., and D.J. Karoly, 2007: A Brief Evaluation of Precipitation from the North American Regional Reanalysis. J. Hydrometeorology, 8, 837-846.

Bukovsky, M.S., J.S. Kain, and M.E. Baldwin, 2005: Bowing convective systems in a popular operational model: Are they for real? Wea. Forecasting, 21, 307-324.

Books

Mearns, L.O., M.S. Bukovsky, S.C. Pryor, V. Magana, 2014: Downscaling of Climate Information. Climate Change in North America. Ed. G. Ohring. Springer International, Switzerland. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-03768-4_5.

Publications and Presentations (20)
Title	Source	Date
A mechanistically credible, poleward shift in warm-season precipitation projected for the U.S. Southern Great Plains?	Journal of Climate	2017-10-01
Verifying NARCCAP models for severe-storm environments	Seminar at Virginia Commonwealth University	2017-03-03
Statistical Applications for Severe Storm Environments	Seminar at Università degli Studi di Torino	2017-02-17
Potential value of expert elicitation for determining differential credibility of regional climate change simulations: An exercise with the NARCCAP co-PIs for the southwest monsoon region of North America	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society	2017-01-01
Evaluating NARCCAP model performance for frequencies of severe-storm environments	Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography	2016-11-04
Evaluating severe-storm environment variables from the North American Climate Change Assessment Program climate models	Seminar at CU-Denver 2016	2016-10-17
RZWQM2 simulated management practices to mitigate climate change impacts on nitrogen losses and corn production	Unspecified	2016-10-01
Evaluating climate models [presentation]	16th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th European Conference on Applied Climatology	2016-09-16
Evaluating climate models [presentation]	American Statistical Association Joint Statistical Meeting 2016	2016-08-01
Toward assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American Monsoon: Future climate simulations	Journal of Climate	2015-09-01
Modeling the impacts of climate change on nitrogen losses and crop yield in a subsurface drained field	Climatic Change	2015-03-01
Land-atmosphere interactions in the NARCCAP simulations: A process level approach to understanding model differences [presentation]	28th Conference on Hydrology	2014-02-03
Downscaling of climate information	Climate Change in North America	2014-01-01
Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: Current climate simulations	Journal of Climate	2013-11-15
Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)	Climatic Change	2013-10-01
Two case studies on NARCCAP precipitation extremes	Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres	2013-09-27
The North American regional climate change assessment program: Overview of phase I results	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society	2012-09-01
Temperature trends in the NARCCAP regional climate models	Journal of Climate	2012-06-01
The effect of a giant wind farm on precipitation in a regional climate model	Environmental Research Letters	2011-10-21
A regional modeling study of climate change impacts on warm-season precipitation in the Central United States	Journal of Climate	2011-04-01

Curriculum Vitae

MELISSA SUE BUKOVSKY (as of Feb. 2016)

National Center for Atmospheric Research
Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences
P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307-3000,
Phone: 303-497-8136
bukovsky @ ucar .edu

EDUCATION

University of Oklahoma (Norman, OK)
Ph.D., May 2009, Meteorology
College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, School of Meteorology

University of Oklahoma (Norman, OK)
M.S., August 2004, Meteorology
College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences, School of Meteorology

Northern Illinois University (DeKalb, IL)
B.S., May 2002, Meteorology
Department of Geography

College of DuPage (Glen Ellyn, IL)
A.S., August 2000

RESEARCH EXPERIENCE

Project Scientist II, September 2015 - present
Project Scientist I, December 2011 - September 2015
Post-Doctoral Fellow, July 2009 – December 2011
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, Boulder, CO

Graduate Research Assistant, June 2002 – May 2009
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK

Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Summer Research Internship, Summer 2001,
Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK

RELEVANT ACTIVITIES

Experience with multiple cross-disciplinary research projects. This includes ongoing work examining the potential impacts of climate change on 8 different U.S.-based military installations through two Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) grants, a program run by the DoD joint with the EPA and DoE. Other relevant research is looking at the impact of climate change and decision-making on species’ distributions and water resources in the West with funding from the NSF. M. Bukovsky has also interacted with many interdisciplinary users of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model dataset.
Extensive experience communicating about climate change with the public through multiple guest lectures every year and as a substitute tour guide for the NCAR Mesa lab.
Completing simulations for the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) effort.
Writing mentor for the NCAR Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) undergraduate research program for the past 4 summers.
Managed the University of Oklahoma National Weather Center climate seminar series, participated in a local science policy interest group at OU, and was a student member of the AMS Mesoscale Processes committee.
Participated in the 2007 AMS Summer Policy Colloquium.
Attended the 2006 Weather and Society*Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) workshop.

AWARDS AND FELLOWSHIPS

1998 - 2000 Academic Excellence Scholarship, College of DuPage
2000 Baron Services Undergraduate Scholarship, American Meteorological Society
2001 Guillermo Salazar Rodriguez Undergraduate Scholarship, American Meteorological Society
2001 NIU Geography Dept., Most Excellent Junior Award
2002 NIU Geography Dept. Most Excellent Senior Award
2004 - 2009 OU Alumni Graduate Fellowship
2007 OU, School of Meteorology, Yoshi Sasaki Award for Best M.S. Manuscript/Publication
2007 Outstanding Student Presentation Award, AMS 16th Applied Climatology Conference
2009 OU, School of Meteorology, Faculty Recognition for Outstanding Performance as a Graduate Student Award

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETY MEMBERSHIPS

American Meteorological Society

American Geophysical Union

Resume_2_2016.pdf

Interests

My research interests include:

Regional climate modeling, model validation, and uncertainty.
Regional climate change impacts and adaptation.
North American, warm-season convection, particularly in the central US and as related to the North American Monsoon System.

General Topics

Field of Expertise:

Climate Science
Interdisciplinary Research
Meteorology

Specialty:

Climate Change
Extreme Weather/Severe Storms
Impacts
Meteorology: Mesoscale
Modeling: Regional

UMatch Collaborative Activity:

Collaborative research partner
Giving a seminar

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MELISSA SUE BUKOVSKY (as of Feb. 2016)

EDUCATION

RESEARCH EXPERIENCE

RELEVANT ACTIVITIES

AWARDS AND FELLOWSHIPS

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETY MEMBERSHIPS

General Topics

Field of Expertise:

Specialty:

UMatch Collaborative Activity:

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Staff Notes Daily

Melissa Bukovsky

Information

Journal Publications

Books

MELISSA SUE BUKOVSKY (as of Feb. 2016)

EDUCATION

RESEARCH EXPERIENCE

RELEVANT ACTIVITIES

AWARDS AND FELLOWSHIPS

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETY MEMBERSHIPS

General Topics

Field of Expertise:

Specialty:

UMatch Collaborative Activity:

Quick Facts

NCAR & UCAR News