Jacquelyn Shuman

Proj Scientist II

Information

Bio

I am a project scientist in the Terrestrial Sciences Section working on the development and application of the dynamic global vegetation model FATES (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator) for improved representation of vegetation response to altered climate and disturbance. My research is motivated by an interest in the complex organization of vegetation and feedbacks between vegetation and the local, regional, and global system. I specialize in the use and development of ecological models that include dynamic size-structured vegetation, competition and disturbance. Recent work includes exploring the impacts of vegetation states on and interactions with disturbances, climate, carbon storage, and ecosystem services through analysis of changes in vegetation structure and composition over time. Currently my research involves the development, testing and application of the size-structured vegetation model FATES to improve our ability to capture fire-vegetation interactions. This research allows us to study the influence and feedbacks between climate, fire and vegetation.

Prior to my position at NCAR, I used a detailed individual-based model of forest gap dynamics to explore changes in forest structure and composition in collaboration with Dr. Hank Shugart of the University of Virginia. This type of individual tree species-based modeling utilizes a monte-carlo approach summarizing canopy reorganization across independent patches to capture a typical forest landscape over time for a location under the influence of changing climate or disturbance drivers. Past research focused on continental scale application and development across the boreal forests of Russia and North America, including development of fire-induced tree mortality based on tree size and species.

Publications

Dickman, L. T., Jonko, A. K., Linn, R. R., Altintas, I., Atchley, A. L., Bär, A., Collins, A. D., Dupuy, J., Gallagher, M. R., Hiers, J. K., Hoffman, C. M., Hood, S. M., Hurteau, M. D., Jolly, W. M., Josephson, A., Loudermilk, E. L., Ma, W., Michaletz, S. T., Nolan, R. H., O’Brien, J. J., Parsons, R. A., Partelli‐Feltrin, R., Pimont, F., Resco de Dios, V., Restaino, J., Robbins, Z. J., Sartor, K. A., Schultz‐Fellenz, E., Serbin, S. P., Sevanto, S., Shuman, J. K., Sieg, C. H., Skowronski, N. S., Weise, D. R., Wright, M., Xu, C., Yebra, M., and Younes, N. 2023. Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects. New Phytologist. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.18770

Foster, A.C., Wang, J.A., Frost, G.V., Davidson, S.J., Hoy, E., Turner, K., Sonentag, O., Epstein, H., Berner, L.T., Armstrong, A.H., Kang, M., Rogers, B.M., Campbell, E., Miner, K.R., Orndahl, K.M., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Lutz, D.A., French, N., Chen, D., Du, J., Shestakova, T.A., Shuman, J.K., Tape, K., Virkkala, A-M, Potter, C., and Goetz, S. 2022. Disturbances in North American boreal forest and tundra: impacts, interactions, and responses. Environ. Res. Lett. 17 113001 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac98d7

Bui, H. X., Timmermann, A., Lee, J.-Y., Maloney, E. D., Li, Y.-X., Kim, J.-E., Shuman, J., Lee, S-S, Weider, W. 2022. Summer midlatitude stationary wave patterns synchronize Northern Hemisphere wildfire occurrence. Geophysical Research Letters, 49. e2022GL099017. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099017

Shuman, J.K., J.K. Balch, R.T. Barnes, P.E. Higuera, C.I. Roos, D.W. Schwilk, E.N. Stavros, T. Banerjee, M.M. Bela, J. Bendix, S. Bertolino, S. Bililign, K.D. Bladon, P. Brando, R.E. Breidenthal, B. Buma, D. Calhoun, L.M.V. Carvalho, M.E. Cattau, K.M. Cawley, S. Chandra, M.L. Chipman, J.Cobian-Iñiguez, E. Conlisk, J.D. Coop, A. Cullen, K.T. Davis, A. Dayalu, F. De Sales, M. Dolman, L.M. Ellsworth, S. Franklin, C.H. Guiterman, M. Hamilton, E.J. Hanan, W.D. Hansen, S. Hantson, B.J. Harvey, A. Holz, T. Huang, M.D. Hurteau, N.T. Ilangakoon, M. Jennings, C. Jones, A. Klimaszewski-Patterson, L.N. Kobziar, J. Kominoski, B. Kosovic, M.A. Krawchuk, P. Laris, J. Leonard, S.M. Loria-Salazar, M.Lucash, H. Mahmoud, E. Margolis, T. Maxwell, J.L. McCarty, D.B. McWethy, R.S. Meyer, J.R. Miesel, W.K. Moser, R.C.Nagy, D. Niyogi, H.M. Palmer, A. Pellegrini, B. Poulter, K. Robertson, A.V. Rocha, M. Sadegh, F. Santos, F. Scordo, J.O. Sexton, A.S. Sharma, A.M.S. Smith, A.J. Soja, C. Still, T. Swetnam, A.D. Syphard, M.W. Tingey, A. Tohidi, A.T. Trugman, M. Turetsky, J.M. Varner, Y. Wang, T. Whitman, S. Yelenik, X. Zhang. Reimagine Fire Science for the Anthropocence. PNAS Nexus Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2022, pgac115, https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac115

Foster, A. C., Shuman, J., Rogers, B., Walker, X., Mack, M., Bourgeau-Chavez, L., Veraverbeke, S. and Goetz, S. 2022. Bottom-up drivers of future fire regimes in western boreal North America. Environ. Res. Lett. 17 025006 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4c1e

Ma, W., Zhai, L., Pivovaroff, A., Shuman, J., Buotte, P., Ding, J., Christoffersen, B., Knox, R., Moritz, M., Fisher, R. A., Koven, C. D., Kueppers, L., and Xu, C. 2021. Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model, Biogeosciences 18: 4005–4020 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4005-2021

Buotte, P., Koven, C., Xu, C., Shuman, J., Goulden, M., Levis, S., Katz, J., Ding, J., Ma, W., Robbins, Z., and Kueppers, L. 2021. Capturing functional strategies and compositional dynamics in vegetation demographic models. Biogeosciences. 18:4473-4490 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4473-2021

Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Holm, J. A., Faybishenko, B., Magnabosco-Marra, D., Fisher, R. A., Shuman, J. K., de Araujo, A. C., Riley, W. J., and Chambers, J. Q.: Landsat NIR band and ELM-FATES sensitivity to forest disturbances and regrowth in the Central Amazon, Biogeosciences. 17:6185-6205. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-6185-2020.

Koven, C. D., Knox, R. G., Fisher, R. A., Chambers, J. Q., Christoffersen, B. O., Davies, S. J., Detto, M., Dietze, M. C., Faybishenko, B., Holm, J., Huang, M., Kovenock, M., Kueppers, L. M., Lemieux, G., Massoud, E., McDowell, N. G., Muller-Landau, H. C., Needham, J. F., Norby, R. J., Powell, T., Rogers, A., Serbin, S. P., Shuman, J. K., Swann, A. L. S., Varadharajan, C., Walker, A. P., Wright, S. J., and Xu, C. 2020. Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Biogeosciences. 17: 3017–3044. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3017-2020

McLauchlan, K. K., P. E. Higuera, J. Miesel, B. M. Rogers, J. Schweitzer, J. K. Shuman, A. Tepley, J. M. Varner, T. T. Veblen, S. A. Adalsteinsson, J. K. Balch, P. Baker, E. Batllori, E. Bigio, P. Brando, M. Cattau, M. L. Chipman, J. Coen, R. Crandall, L. Daniels, N. Enright, W. S. Gross, B. J. Harvey, J. A. Hatten, S. Hermann, R. E. Hewitt, L. N. Kobziar, J. B. Landesmann, M. M. Loranty, S. Y. Maezumi, L. Mearns, M. Moritz, J. A. Myers, J. G. Pausas, A. F. A. Pellegrini, W. J. Platt, J. Roozeboom, H. Safford, F. Santos, R. M. Scheller, R. L. Sherriff, K. G. Smith, M. D. Smith, and A. C. Watts. Accepted, January 2020. Fire as a fundamental ecological process: research advances and frontiers. Journal of Ecology. 00:1-23 https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13403

Foster, A.C., A. Armstrong, J.K. Shuman, H.H. Shugart, B. Rogers, M. Mack, S. Goetz, and K.J. Ranson. 2019. Importance of tree size and species interactions with wildfire, climate, and soils in interior boreal Alaska: application of a forest gap model at multiple scales. Ecological Modelling 409,108765. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108765

Foster, A.C., J.K. Shuman, H.H. Shugart, and J. Negron. 2018. Modeling the interactive effects of spruce beetle infestation and climate on subalpine vegetation. Ecosphere 9(10): e02437. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2437

Wang, B., J.K. Shuman, H.H. Shugart, and M.T. Lerdau. 2018. Biodiversity matters in feedbacks between climate change and air quality: a study using an individual-based model. Ecological Applications 28 (5) 1223-1231. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1721

Fisher, R.A., Koven, C.D., Anderegg, W.R., Christoffersen, B.O., Dietze, M.C., Farrior, C., Holm, J.A., Hurtt, G., Knox, R.G., Lawrence, P.J. Lichststein, J.W., Longo, M., Matheny, A. M., Medvigy, D., Muller-Landau, H. C., Powell, T. L., Serbin, S. P., Sato, H., Shuman, J., Smith, B., Trugman, A. T., Viskari, T., Verbeeck, H., Weng, E., Xu, C., Xu, X., Zhang, T. and Moorcroft, P. 2017. Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities. Global Change Biology. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13910

Foster, A.C., J.K. Shuman, H.H. Shugart, K.A. Dwire, P.J. Fornwalt, J. Sibold and J. Negron. 2017. Validation and Application of a Forest Gap Model to the Southern Rocky Mountains. Ecological Modelling 351: 109-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.02.019

Shuman, J.K., A.C. Foster, H.H. Shugart, A. Hoffman-Hall, T. Loboda, Dmitry Ershov, and Elena Sochilova. 2017. Fire Disturbance and Climate Change: Implications for Russian Forests. Environmental Research Letters 12 035003. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5eed

Wang, B., H.H. Shugart, J.K. Shuman, and M.T. Lerdau. 2016. Forests and ozone: productivity, carbon storage, and feedbacks. Nature Scientific Reports 6, 22133. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep22133

Foster, A.C., H.H. Shugart and J.K. Shuman. 2015. Model-based Evidence for Cyclic Phenomena in a High-Elevation Two-Species Forest. Ecosystems https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-015-9945-y

Shugart, H.H. G.P. Asner, A. Huth, N. Knapp, T.LeToan and J.K. Shuman. 2015. Computer and remote-sensing infrastructure to enhance large-scale testing of individual-based forest models. Front Ecol Environ. 13 (9):503-511. https://doi.org/10.1890/140327

Shuman, J.K., N. Tchebakova, E. Parfenova, A. Soja, H. Shugart, D. Ershov and K. Holcomb. 2015. Forest Forecasting with Vegetation Models across Russia. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 45:175-184. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2014-0138

Shuman, J.K., H.H. Shugart and O.N. Krankina. 2014. Testing Individual-based Models of Forest Dynamics: Issues and an Example for the Boreal Forests of Russia. Ecological Modelling. 293: 102-110. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.028

Shuman, J.K., H.H. Shugart and O.N. Krankina. 2013. Assessment of carbon stores in tree biomass under multiple management scenarios in Russia. Environmental Research Letters. 8 045019 (9pp). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045019

Lutz, D.A., H.H. Shugart, D.V. Ershov, J.K. Shuman, A.S. Isaev. 2013. Boreal forest sensitivity to increased temperatures at multiple successional stages. Annals of Forest Science. 70: 299-308. doi: 10.1007/s13595-012-0258-4

Shuman, J.K., H.H. Shugart and T.L. O’Halloran. 2011. Sensitivity of Siberian larch forests to climate change. Global Change Biology. 17:2370-2384 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02417.x

Shuman, J.K. and H.H. Shugart. 2009. Evaluating Sensitivity of Eurasian Forest Biomass to Climate Change using a Dynamic Vegetation Model. Environ. Res. Lett. 4 045024 (7pp).

Groisman, P.Y., E.A. Clark, V.M. Kattsov, D.P. Lettenmaier, I.N. Sokolik, V.B. Aizen, O. Cartus, J. Chen, S. Conard, J. Katzenberger, O. Krankina, J. Kukkonen, T. Machida, S. Maksyutov, D. Ojima, J. Qi, V.E. Romanovsky, M. Santoro, C. Schmullius, A.I. Shiklomanov, K. Shimoyama, H.H. Shugart, J.K. Shuman, M. Sofiev, A.I. Sukhinin, C. Vörösmarty, D. Walker, and E.F. Wood. 2009. The Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership: An Example of Science Applied to Societal Needs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90 (5) 671–688.

Publications and Presentations (15)
Title	Source	Date
Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects	New Phytologist	2023-05-01
Summer midlatitude stationary wave patterns synchronize Northern Hemisphere wildfire occurrence	Geophysical Research Letters	2022-09-28
Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene	PNAS Nexus	2022-07-01
Bottom-up drivers of future fire regimes in western boreal North America	Environmental Research Letters	2022-02-01
Capturing functional strategies and compositional dynamics in vegetation demographic models	Biogeosciences	2021-07-30
Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model	Biogeosciences	2021-07-06
Landsat near-infrared (NIR) band and ELM-FATES sensitivity to forest disturbances and regrowth in the Central Amazon	Biogeosciences	2020-12-09
Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers	Journal of Ecology	2020-09-08
Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama	Biogeosciences	2020-06-15
Importance of tree- and species-level interactions with wildfire, climate, and soils in interior Alaska: Implications for forest change under a warming climate	Ecological Modelling	2019-10-01
Modeling the interactive effects of spruce beetle infestation and climate on subalpine vegetation	Ecosphere	2018-10-05
Biodiversity matters in feedbacks between climate change and air quality: A study using an individual-based model	Ecological Applications	2018-07-01
Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities	Global Change Biology	2018-01-01
Validation and application of a forest gap model to the southern Rocky Mountains	Ecological Modelling	2017-05-10
Fire disturbance and climate change: Implications for Russian forests	Environmental Research Letters	2017-02-28

Curriculum Vitae

ShumanJK_CV_2023_May.pdf

Interests

My research interests are closely aligned with exploring how vegetation interacts with and responds to climate and disturbance drivers and the long-term resistance or resilience of an ecosystem to altered conditions. A lack of resilience or the shift of vegetation to alternate states has implications for carbon storage, climate feedbacks and ecosystem services. For instance, warmer and drier temperatures that coincide with more frequent and severe fires, may lead to an alternate vegetation state occupied by species that are able to regenerate within shorter time periods between disturbance, but store less carbon (for example: a mixed forest that becomes dominated by grasses and shrubs due to more frequent fires in warmer and drier conditions).

My research currently focuses on the following specific areas:
• Parameterization of fire mortality and fuel dynamics algorithms and evaluation of climate, fire, and fuel interactions
• The representation of vegetation community dynamics within fire prone regions
• Quantifying and characterizing the importance of initial conditions of fuel and vegetation
• The importance of size-structure and fire resistant traits for capturing fire mortality
• Investigating the impact of fire damage with plant hydraulic capacity and the potential for delayed tree mortality

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Jacquelyn Shuman

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