Eric Gilleland

Proj Scientist II

Research Applications Lab

Weather Systems and Assessment Program

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/~ericg

ericg@ucar.edu

303-497-2849

Information

Bio

Researching methods for verification of high-resolution (spatial) forecasts. Applications involving statistical extreme value analysis (EVA). Maintaining the R packages, distillery, extRemes, ismev, smoothie, SpatialVx, and verification.

Publications

Submitted Papers:

Recently accepted publication(s) not in list below:

Publications and Presentations (133)
Title	Source	Date
A spatial propinquity extreme-value model for assessing large-scale process extremes in future climates	STATMOS Workshop on Spatial and Spatio-temporal EVA and Oceanography 2019	2019-05-22
Crash-course in extremes	STATMOS Workshop on Spatial and Spatio-temporal EVA and Oceanography	2019-05-21
A spatial propinquity extreme-value model for assessing monsoon-type precipitation extremes in future climates	Workshop on Extremal Trends in Weather (WET Weather) 2019	2019-04-29
Use of daily station observations to produce high-resolution gridded probabilistic precipitation and temperature time series for the Hawaiian Islands	Journal of Hydrometeorology	2019-03-01
The setup of the MesoVICT project	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society	2018-09-01
Forecast verification for solar power forecasts	28th Annual Conference of the International Environmetrics Society	2018-07-18
Testing the distance-based spatial forecast verification methods on a new more rigorous set of contrived cases	29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting	2018-06-07
Testing the tests: What are the impacts of incorrect assumptions when applying confidence intervals or hypothesis tests to compare competing forecasts?	Monthly Weather Review	2018-06-01
Statistics of multi-year droughts from the method for object-based diagnostic evaluation	International Journal of Climatology	2018-04-30
Verification within complexity: Comparing spatial fields	Forecasting from Complexity 2018	2018-04-25
Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison Over Complex Terrain (MesoVICT) project	Unspecified	2018-04-12
Observed and predicted sensitivities of extreme surface ozone to meteorological drivers in three US cities	Atmospheric Environment	2018-03-01
Quantifying the risk of extreme events under climate change	Chance	2017-11-20
Extreme value analysis with the R package extRemes	Environmental Risk Modeling and Extreme Events Workshop 2017	2017-08-28
Mesoscale spatial forecast verification over complex terrain	American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meeting 2017	2017-08-02
Spatial forecast verification and the mesoscale verification intercomparison over complex terrain	30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change	2017-07-29
Verifying NARCCAP models for severe-storm environments	Seminar at Virginia Commonwealth University	2017-03-03
Multiyear droughts and pluvials over the upper Colorado River Basin and associated circulations	Journal of Hydrometeorology	2017-03-01
Statistical Applications for Severe Storm Environments	Seminar at Università degli Studi di Torino	2017-02-17
A new characterization within the spatial verification framework for false alarms, misses, and overall patterns	Weather and Forecasting	2017-02-01
Evaluating NARCCAP models for severe storm environment variables [presentation]	97th AMS Annual Meeting	2017-01-24
Assessing convection permitting resolutions of WRF for the purpose of water resource impact assessment and vulnerability work: A southeast Australian case study	Water Resources Research	2017-01-01
Evaluating NARCCAP model performance for frequencies of severe-storm environments	Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography	2016-11-04
Towards finding trends in extreme values of precipitation: A preliminary Analysis	STATMOS Workshop on Climate Extremes	2016-10-24
Evaluating severe-storm environment variables from the North American Climate Change Assessment Program climate models	Seminar at CU-Denver 2016	2016-10-17
The spatial prediction comparison test	MET Office Visit	2016-10-06
A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for average distance false alarms and misses	SPECS Fifth General Assembly	2016-10-03
Capitalizing on the asymmetry of the mean error distance	2nd Mesoscale Verification Inter-comparison over Complex Terrain (MesoVICT) Workshop	2016-09-22
SpatialVx [presentation]	2nd MesoVICT Workshop	2016-09-21
Evaluating climate models [presentation]	16th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th European Conference on Applied Climatology	2016-09-16
extRemes 2.0: An extreme value analysis package in R	Journal of Statistical Software	2016-08-30
Evaluating climate models [presentation]	American Statistical Association Joint Statistical Meeting 2016	2016-08-01
Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory	Geophysical Research Letters	2016-04-28
A new historical database of tropical cyclone position, intensity, and size parameters optimized for wind risk modeling [presentation]	32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology	2016-04-20
A new historical database of tropical cyclone position, intensity, and size parameters optimized for wind risk modeling [manuscript]	32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology	2016-04-20
A new historical database of tropical cyclone position, intensity, and size parameters optimized for wind risk modeling	32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology	2016-04-20
Spatial forecast verification methods overview [presentation]	ASA Colorado/Wyoming Chapter Spring Meeting 2016	2016-04-15
Evaluation of weather and climate forecasts: A 2016 perspective [presentation]	23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences	2016-01-14
Testing the tests: A look at size and power for hypothesis tests of competing forecasts [presentation]	23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences	2016-01-13
Verification of Meteorological Forecasts for Hydrological Applications	Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting	2016-01-01
Computing Software	Extreme value modeling and risk analysis: Methods and applications	2015-12-21
Conditional extreme value analysis for severe storm environments [presentation]	IMAGe ToY Seminar	2015-11-20
Which forecast is better? [presentation]	Big Data and Environment Workshop 2015	2015-11-10
A new verification method for assessing competing forecast performance with timing errors [presentation]	15th EMS Annual Meeting and 12th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)	2015-09-10
Spatial clustering of summer temperature maxima from the CNRM-CM5 climate model ensembles & E-OBS over Europe	Weather and Climate Extremes	2015-09-01
A new approach to testing forecast predictive accuracy	Meteorological Applications	2015-07-01
Severe storm environments and extreme value analysis [presentation]	9th International Extreme Value Analysis Conference	2015-06-15
Spatial forecast verification methods overview [presentation]	MET Tutorial	2015-02-03
Conditional extreme value analysis for severe storm environments [presentation]	University of Colorado Depatrment of Applied Mathematics Colloquium	2015-01-23
Empirical Bayes estimation for the conditional extreme value model	Stat: The ISI's Journal for the Rapid Dissemination of Statistics Research	2014-12-11
Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate	Climatic Change	2014-11-01
Advanced climate and regional model validation for societal applications [presentation]	14th European Meteorological Society (EMS) Annual Meeting/10th European Climate Applications Conference (ECAC)	2014-10-09
What we learned from the spatial forecast verification Inter-Comparison Project (ICP) [presentation]	MesoVICT Kick-off Meeting	2014-10-02
Accounting for location errors with the spatial prediction comparison test [presentation]	MesoVICT Kick-off Meeting	2014-10-02
Reinsurance and extremal events	Computational Actuarial Science with R	2014-08-26
Advanced climate and regional model validation for societal applications [presentation]	CESM Societal Dimensions Working Group Meeting 2014	2014-02-27
RDITT Evaluation by TCMT [presentation]	HFIP Annual Review Meeting	2014-02-19
Spatial forecast verification methods overview [presentation]	MET/WRF Tutorial	2014-01-24
Testing competing models on spatial fields [presentation]	AGU Fall Meeting 2013	2013-12-09
MesoVICT: Mesoscale Verification Inter-Comparison over Complex Terrain	NCAR Technical Note	2013-11-01
A conditional extreme value model for severe storm environments [presentation]	International Short Conference on Advances in Extreme Value Analysis and Application to Natural Hazards (EVAN2013)	2013-09-18
Testing competing high-resolution precipitation forecasts [presentation]	13th European Meteorological Society (EMS) and 11th Conference on Applied Meteorology (ECAM) annual meeting	2013-09-10
Extremes of severe storm environments under a changing climate	American Journal of Climate Change	2013-09-01
Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather	Environmetrics	2013-09-01
Extreme value analysis and ventures into space and time [presentation]	Next Generation Climate Data Products Workshop	2013-07-15
Two-dimensional kernel smoothing: Using the R package smoothie	NCAR Technical Note	2013-07-01
The Spatial Prediction Comparison Test [presentation]	14th Annual WRF Users' Workshop	2013-06-28
A software review for extreme value analysis	Extremes	2013-03-01
A conditional distribution for severe storm environments [presentation]	Applied Mathematics and Statistics Colloquium	2013-02-22
A conditional distribution for severe storm environments [presentation]	Winter CESM UQ Interest Group Meeting	2013-02-20
Spatial forecast verification methods overview [presentation]	MET 2013 Winter Tutorial	2013-02-05
Testing competing precipitation forecasts accurately and efficiently: The spatial prediction comparison test	Monthly Weather Review	2013-01-01
Predicting and evaluating extreme weather events [presentation]	12th Experimental Chaos and Complexity Conference	2012-05-18
Spatial weather forecast verification [presentation]	1st ASME Verifcation and Validation Symposium	2012-05-03
Spatial forecast verification [presentation]	WRF User Tutorial 2012	2012-01-31
A field deformation approach to spatio-temporal forecast verification of gridded sets [presentation]	21st Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences	2012-01-25
Forecasts of spatial fields	Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science	2011-12-01
Gridded forecast verification [presentation]	JSM2011 - Statistics: An all-encompassing discipline	2011-08-03
Spatial forecast verification: Baddeley's delta metric applied to the ICP test cases	Weather and Forecasting	2011-06-01
Spatio-temporal models for large-scale indicators of extreme weather	Environmetrics	2011-05-01
Extreme value analysis [presentation]	Systems Thinking Course	2011-03-08
New software to analyze how extremes change over time	Eos	2011-01-11
Modeling hydrologic and water quality extremes in a changing climate: A statistical approach based on extreme value theory	Water Resources Research	2010-11-03
Verifying forecasts spatially	Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society	2010-10-01
Some extreme value problems in climatology [presentation]	Extreme events in climate and weather: An interdisciplinary workshop	2010-08-22
Analyzing the image warp forecast verification method on precipitation fields from the ICP	Weather and Forecasting	2010-08-01
Spatial forecast verification [presentation]	ASP Summer Colloquium 2010: Forecast Verification in the Atmospheric Sciences and Beyond	2010-06-14
Generalized extreme wind speed distributions in South America over the Atlantic Ocean region	Theoretical and Applied Climatology	2010-06-01
Confidence intervals for forecast verification: Practical considerations	Unspecified	2010-03-01
Spatial forecast verification [presentation]	20th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences	2010-01-20
Application of spatial verification methods to idealized and NWP-gridded precipitation forecasts	Weather and Forecasting	2009-12-01
Intercomparison of spatial forecast verification methods	Weather and Forecasting	2009-10-01
Spatial forecast verification [presentation]	9th EMS Annual Meeting/9th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)	2009-09-30
Extreme value theory, extreme temperatures and demonstration of extRemes [presentation]	3rd Biannual NCAR Workshop on Climate and Health Effects of Heat Waves and Air Pollution	2009-07-15
Extreme behavior of large-scale indicators for severe weather [presentation]	6th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis	2009-06-25
Spatial forecast verification: Thin plate splines	Unspecified	2009-06-18
Spatial forecast verification: The image warp [presentation]	4th International Verification Methods Workshop	2009-06-09
The spatial verification method intercomparison project [presentation]	23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction	2009-06-04
Extreme wind regime responses to climate variability and change in the inner-south-coast of British Columbia Canada	Atmosphere-Ocean	2009-03-01
The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): Community tools for forecast evaluation [presentation]	25th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology	2009-01-14
Weather and climate extremes: CAPE and shear [presentation]	Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association 2008	2008-08-07
Large-scale indicators for severe weather	American Statistical Association (ASA) Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) 2008	2008-08-05
Objective verification results from forecasts generated with the ARW and NMM dynamic cores of the WRF model [presentation]	9th WRF Users' Workshop	2008-06-26
Spatial extremes in atmospheric problems [presentation]	19th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society	2008-06-12
The image warp for gridded forecast verification [presentation]	19th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society	2008-06-12
Computationally efficient spatial forecast verification using Baddeley's delta image metric	Monthly Weather Review	2008-05-01
Resampling methods for statistical inference: Bootstrap methods [presentation]	DTC Verification Workshop 2008	2008-04-17
Image warping for forecast verification [presentation]	ICP Spring Workshop 2008	2008-04-14
Intercomparison of spatial verification methods [presentation]	19th Conference on Probability and Statistics	2008-01-23
Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE): A features-based spatial forecast verification technique [presentation]	The Statistics Seminar 2007	2007-10-26
Extremes and atmospheric data [presentation]	Opening Workshop for the Program on Risk Analysis, Extreme Events and Decision Theory 2007-08	2007-09-16
Spatial verification of high-resolution weather forecasts: beyond traditional metrics [presentation]	22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction	2007-06-26
Spatial forecast verification inter-comparison project (ICP) [presentation]	International Workshop on Verification Methods 2007	2007-02-01
Extreme value analysis of global reanalysis data [presentation]	16th Conference on Applied Climatology	2007-01-17
Network design for verification of ceiling and visibility forecasts	Environmetrics	2006-09-01
Analyzing the extreme behavior of large-scale meteorlogical variables found to have influence on severe storms and tornadic events using global reanalysis data [presentation]	Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association 2006	2006-08-10
Spatial models for the distribution of extremes	Hierarchical Modelling for the Environmental Sciences: Statistical Methods and Applications	2006-06-01
Evaluating spatial quantitative precipitation forecasts in the form of binary images [presentation]	18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences	2006-01-30
Analyzing seasonal to interannual extreme weather and climate variability with the extremes toolkit (extRemes) [presentation]	18th Conference on Climate Variability and Change	2006-01-28
Software for the analysis of extreme events: The current state and future directions	Extremes	2005-09-01
The Extremes Toolkit: Weather and climate applications of extreme value statistics [presentation]	4th Conference on Extreme Value Analysis: Probabilistic and Statistical Models and their Applications	2005-08-16
Statistical methods for spatial data [presentation]	Joint Statistical Meeting of the American Statistical Association 2005	2005-08-10
Diagnostic evaluation of spatial weather forecasts using an object-based approach [presentation]	2005 Joint Statistical Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Using Our Discipline to Enhance Human Welfare	2005-08-09
Statistical models for monitoring and regulating ground-level ozone	Environmetrics	2005-08-01
Extremes toolkit (extRemes): Weather and climate applications of extreme value statistics	Unspecified	2005-07-01
New verification approaches for convective weather forecasts [presentation]	11th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology	2004-10-07
Verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts using Baddeley's delta metric [presentation]	International Verification Methods Workshop 2004	2004-09-16
Optimizing METAR network design to remove potential bias in verification of cloud ceiling height and visibility forecasts [presentation]	International Verification Methods Workshop 2004	2004-09-16
Optimizing METAR network design for verification of cloud ceiling height and visibility forecasts [presentation]	15th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society/6th International Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences	2004-07-01
Spatial models for the distribution of extremes [presentation]	Graybill Conference 2004	2004-06-17
R at NCAR [presentation]	useR! 2004 - The R User Conference	2004-05-21
The extreme value toolkit (extRemes): Weather and climate applications of extreme value statistics [presentation]	useR! 2004 - The R User Conference	2004-05-20
Improving forecast verification through network design [presentation]	17th Conference on Probablity and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences	2004-01-13

Curriculum Vitae

Full CV (pdf) follows.

Personal Preparation

Ph.D., 2005, Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
M.S., 1998, Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona
B.A., 1996, Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

Appointments

12/03/2002 to Present: Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Project Scientist II (12/18/2013 to Present)
Project Scientist I (10/30/2006 to 12/18/2013)
Associate Scientist III (6/1/2006 to 10/30/2006)
Associate Scientist II (12/03/2002 to 6/1/2006)

10/19/1998 to 12/03/2002: Geophysical Statistics Project/Atmospheric Technology Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Student Assistant III/Graduate Research Assistant,

Selected Refereed Publications

Gilleland, E., A. S. Hering, T. L. Fowler, and B. G. Brown, 2018. Testing the tests: What are the impacts of incorrect assumptions when applying confidence intervals or hypothesis tests to compare competing forecasts? Mon. Wea. Rev., 146 (6), 1685 - 1703, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0295.1

Ekström, M. and Gilleland, E., 2017. Assessing convection permitting resolutions of WRF for the purpose of water resource impact assessment and vulnerability work; a southeast Australian case study. Water Resour. Res., 53 (1), 726 - 743, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019545.

Gilleland, E., 2017. A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for false alarms, misses, and overall patterns. Weather Forecast., 32 (1), 187 - 198, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0134.1.

Gilleland, E. and R. W. Katz, 2016. extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72 (8), 1 - 39, DOI: 10.18637/jss.v072.i08.

Shen, L., L. J. Mickley, and E. Gilleland, 2016. Impact of increasing heatwaves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multi-model analysis using extreme value theory. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8), 4017 - 4025, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068432.

Cheng, L., E. Gilleland, M. J. Heaton, and A. AghaKouchak, 2014. Empirical Bayes estimation for the conditional extreme value model. Stat, 3 (1) 391 - 406, DOI: 10.1002/sta4.71.

Gilleland, E., 2013. Testing competing precipitation forecasts accurately and efficiently: The spatial prediction comparison test. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, (1), 340 - 355, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-12-00155.1.

Gilleland, E., B. G. Brown, and C. M. Ammann, 2013. Spatial extreme value analysis to project extremes of large-scale indicators for severe weather. Environmetrics, 24 (6), 418 - 432, DOI: 10.1002/env.2234.

Gilleland, E., J. Lindström, and F. Lindgren, 2010. Analyzing the image warp forecast verification method on precipitation fields from the ICP. Wea. Forecasting, 25 (4), 1249 - 1262, doi: 10.1175/2010WAF2222365.1.

Heaton, M.J., M. Katzfuss, S. Ramachandar, K. Pedings, E. Gilleland, E. Mannshardt-Shamseldin, and R.L. Smith, 2010. Spatio-Temporal Models for Large-scale Indicators of Extreme Weather. Environmetrics, 22, 294 - 303, doi: 10.1002/env.1050.

Gilleland, E., D. Ahijevych, B.G. Brown, B. Casati, and E.E. Ebert, 2009. Intercomparison of Spatial Forecast Verification Methods. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1416 - 1430, doi: 10.1175/2009WAF2222269.1.

Gilleland, E. and D.W. Nychka, 2005. Statistical Models for Monitoring and Regulating Ground-level Ozone. Environmetrics, 16, 535 - 546, doi: 10.1002/env.720.

Selected Synergistic Activities

Member: World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Research Devision’s Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), 2/22/2018–12/31/2021.

American Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee (Committee Member:
1/16/2011 to 2/15/15, Committee Chair, 2/15/15 to present)

Co-chair for the 4th International Workshop on Climate Informatics. 25 - 26 September 2014,
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.

NCAR node director for STATMOS (1/1/14 to present)

Associate Editor: Monthly Weather Review, 1/2014 to present

Honors, awards, citations

2014 Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

2010 UCAR Scientific and Technical Advancement Award

Full CV (pdf)

GillelandCV.pdf

Education

Degree	School	Program
MS	ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY	Statistics
PHD	COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY	Statistics
BA	UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO, BOULDER	Mathematics

Links

Personal Page

STATMOS (NCAR node)

AMS Probability and Statistics Committee

Spatial Forecast Verification inter-Comparison Project

Forecast Verification Information page

Gilleland Creek

Piter Wilkens

Metrics

Interests

My main interests include (i) developing and testing new methods for verifying high-resolution weather forecasts, similarly for (ii) evaluating climate model output, and (iii) spatial extreme value analysis.

Field of Expertise:

Applied Mathematics

Specialty:

Statistics

UMatch Collaborative Activity:

PhD thesis committee
Masters thesis committee
Program review committee
Postdoctoral mentor
Graduate student mentor/host at NCAR|UCAR
Collaborative research partner
Giving a seminar
Giving a series of lectures
Teaching a class

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Information

Personal Preparation

Appointments

Selected Refereed Publications

Selected Synergistic Activities

Honors, awards, citations

Full CV (pdf)

Field of Expertise:

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Staff Notes Daily

Eric Gilleland

Information

Personal Preparation

Appointments

Selected Refereed Publications

Selected Synergistic Activities

Honors, awards, citations

Full CV (pdf)

Field of Expertise:

Specialty:

UMatch Collaborative Activity: