Temporal changes in wind as objects for evaluating mesoscale numerical weather prediction

AMS Citation:
Rife, D. L., C. A. Davis, and J. C. Knievel, 2009: Temporal changes in wind as objects for evaluating mesoscale numerical weather prediction. Weather and Forecasting, 24, 1374-1389, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222223.1.
Date:2009-10-01
Resource Type:article
Title:Temporal changes in wind as objects for evaluating mesoscale numerical weather prediction
Abstract: The study describes a method of evaluating numerical weather prediction models by comparing the characteristics of temporal changes in simulated and observed 10-m (AGL) winds. The method is demonstrated on a 1-yr collection of 1-day simulations by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) over southern New Mexico. Temporal objects, or wind events, are defined at the observation locations and at each grid point in the model domain as vector wind changes over 2 h. Changes above the uppermost quartile of the distributions in the observations and simulations are empirically classified as significant; their attributes are analyzed and interpreted. It is demonstrated that the model can discriminate between large and modest wind changes on a pointwise basis, suggesting that many forecast events have an observational counterpart. Spatial clusters of significant wind events are highly continuous in space and time. Such continuity suggests that displaying maps of surface wind changes with high temporal resolution can alert forecasters to the occurrence of important phenomena. Documented systematic errors in the amplitude, direction, and timing of wind events will allow forecasters to mentally adjust for biases in features forecast by the model.
Subject(s):wind, mesoscale forecasting, numerical weather prediction/forecasting
Peer Review:Refereed
Copyright Information:Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
OpenSky citable URL: ark:/85065/d7s183s6
Publisher's Version: 10.1175/2009WAF2222223.1
Author(s):
  • Daran Rife - NCAR/UCAR
  • Christopher Davis - NCAR/UCAR
  • Jason Knievel - NCAR/UCAR
  • Random Profile

    SR SCI EMERITUS

    Recent & Upcoming Visitors